The Challenge of Making Accurate Predictions

As I’ve mentioned previously, overconfidence is common. Below are a few predictions from the last century to remind you of this fact.

“Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” – Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929

“A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” – New York Times, 1936

“We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” – Decca Recording Company rejecting the Beatles, 1962

“With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market.” — Business Week, 1968

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” — Ken Olson, President of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

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