Tag Archives: thomas schelling

Modelling Change Management

For such a complex process, change management can be modeled mathematically using basic and remarkably simple assumptions, or rules.  The Nobel prize winner, Thomas Schelling as done so.

The sequence below shows segregation occurring where each red and blue dot is a “person” and they each want to live next to at least 2 neighboring dots of the same color out of their 4 total neighbors, the result of the simple and apparently moderate rule is total segregation after a period of time. What’s fascinating is that an apparently minor rule or constraint leads to this level of change.

Number of neighbors that need to be of the same color:

  • 1 neighbor – no segregation
  • 2 neighbors – complete segregation
  • 3 neighbors – complete segregation
  • 4 neighbor – complete segregation

Fine. So what does this mean for change management? The lesson is that very small changes in people’s behaviors and preferences can drive enormous differences in outcome.

You can see the animated sequence here (note: if it doesn’t work you need to have Quicktime installed.)

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See the full article from Atlantic Magazine here.